5. Preparing for the future
In 2015, Nicolas Gisin announced that the quantum computer would
be commonplace by 2024/2029, and the European Commission (JRC, Joint
Research Center) predicted it for 2023/2039. The European Commission
announced quantum simulators for 2016, which have now become a reality.
The prediction criterion has become that of the year (with a given
probability) of the advent of a quantum computer relevant to cryptography
(using Shor's quantum algorithm in particular) capable of decrypting
a 2048-bit RSA encryption in less than a day. The prediction of the
ninth annual ETSI/IQC Quantum Safe Cryptography conference in February
2023 indicates that the most optimistic experts (speaking at the end
of 2022) are talking about 2027, but the majority are predicting 2032-2037
with a probability of over 50%. The stage of fundamental research,
initial experimentation and QKD pilot deployments...
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Preparing for the future