4. Conclusion and outlook

Assessing the risk of projections in a hazard study requires a specific analysis, given the eminently binary nature of projectile effects: either the projectile impacts a critical target, and the consequence is likely to be serious, or it does not. What's more, the consequences only diminish very gradually with distance, as aerodynamic braking is often limited, unlike in the case of fire or explosion, where the effects are rapidly attenuated as soon as you move away from the source. It is therefore difficult to quantify the projection risk in the same way as other risks, since the initial probability of explosion must be combined with the probability of being hit by projection.

The study of projectiles requires special skills to identify relevant potential failure mechanisms, due to the many uncertainties associated with ruin. The characterization of projectiles...