5. Preparing for the future

In 2015, Nicolas Gisin announced that the quantum computer would be commonplace by 2024/2029, and the European Commission (JRC, Joint Research Center) predicted it for 2023/2039. The European Commission announced quantum simulators for 2016, which have now become a reality.

The prediction criterion has become that of the year (with a given probability) of the advent of a quantum computer relevant to cryptography (using Shor's quantum algorithm in particular) capable of decrypting a 2048-bit RSA encryption in less than a day. The prediction of the ninth annual ETSI/IQC Quantum Safe Cryptography conference in February 2023 indicates that the most optimistic experts (speaking at the end of 2022) are talking about 2027, but the majority are predicting 2032-2037 with a probability of over 50%. The stage of fundamental research, initial experimentation and QKD pilot deployments...