4. Risk assessment and evaluation
We know that estimating risk requires quantifying the probability of occurrence of the feared event (the accident), as well as the severity of the effects generated by this event. These quantifications are obtained using the following techniques:
research accident scenarios to quantify their probability of occurrence, using SoTL tools (APR, AdD, FMEA/FMEA) (see table
7
);
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modelling of the associated physical phenomena to quantify the severity of the consequences, using the following sciences:
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Risk assessment and evaluation
Bibliography
The method was first published in 1974 by LAWLEY*, then successively described in three application guides, the first in 1976 by KNOWLTON* and SHIPLEY of ICI, the second in 1977 by the Chemical Industries Association (CIA)* and the third in 1981, again by KNOWLTON*, but on behalf of Chemetics International Ltd. These guides were followed twenty years later, in 2001, by the international standard IEC 61882 entitled: "Hazard...
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