Article | REF: SE4021 V1

Assessment of ignition probabilities - Mathematical models

Author: Olivier IDDIR

Publication date: July 10, 2017 | Lire en français

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    1. Essential reminders

    1.1 Probability of immediate and delayed ignition

    Analysis of the hazardous phenomena associated with loss of containment of a flammable product requires separate estimation of the probability of immediate ignition and the probability of delayed ignition. This is because, depending on the moment at which ignition occurs, the type and intensity of the hazardous phenomenon will differ. It is therefore common practice in risk analysis to estimate these two probabilities separately. The probability of total ignition is then easily deduced from these two contributors (figure 1 ). Figure 2...

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