2. Evolution of mathematical models

Since the 1990s, a great deal of work has been carried out on the calculation of ignition probabilities. This work has led to significant developments in the mathematical models used in the onshore and offshore sectors. These developments have nevertheless led to an increase in the complexity of the models, mainly due to the fact that they attempt to take into account more and more parameters.

Figure 4 , based on a presentation by DNV GL, shows the chronology of development of the main models for estimating ignition probabilities.