4. Assessment of runaway probability
There is currently no direct quantitative measure of the probability of occurrence of an incident, or in the case of thermal process safety, of the probability of a runaway. A pragmatic approach will therefore be used, focusing on the "chances" of avoiding a runaway.
4.1 Time-to-explosion concept (TMRad)
If we consider the runaway curves shown in figure 6 , it becomes clear that in case 2, there is sufficient time to take measures to regain control of the temperature, whereas in case 1, the runaway is so rapid that there is not enough time to intervene effectively. So, comparing these two cases, it becomes clear that the probability of a runaway would be higher...
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Assessment of runaway probability
Controlling exothermic reactions
Bibliography
Software tools
CHETAH CHETAH. – The ASTM chemical thermodynamic and energy release evaluation program. ASTM, 1916 Race street, Philadelphia, Pa 19103, 1974.
AKTS: Advanced Kintetics and Solutions, AKTS AG http://www.akts.com ,Techno-pôle 3960 Siders, Switzerland
Websites
HARSNET Thematic network on hazard assessment of highly reactive systems http://www.harsnet.net/
Source of physico-chemical data: The NIST chemistry Webbook (National Institute of Standard and Technology) http://www.webbook.nist.go./chemistry
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