3. Classic forecasting methods

3.1 Deductive and inductive methods

Forecasting analysis methods can be divided into two main families, which differ in their reasoning techniques:

• bottom-to-top methods start from the causes of failures and work their way up to the consequences to be avoided;

• deductive methods, on the other hand, are top-to-bottom: they start with the undesirable event and look for all the causes likely to lead to it.

In order to implement these methods, it is essential to break down the system hierarchically, either physically or functionally. Some of these methods enable us to quantify the probabilities of risks incurred (provided we have access to quality feedback, i.e. reliable feedback backed...