6. Outlook

As mentioned in the introduction, the prospects for the commercial development of fuel cells have never been better, thanks to the efforts of several major industrial groups and automakers. The winners are likely to be the solid electrolyte technologies, PEMFC and SOFC. These two technologies have now reached prototype level, and a start on commercialization is possible before 2005. They are both very compact, have good cost-cutting prospects and sufficiently long lifetimes (40,000 hours).

PAFCs are the closest to commercialization, but cost reductions are slow in coming, and they could be overtaken by PEMFCs. They have the advantage of a sufficiently high operating temperature for interesting cogeneration and operation with natural gas. However, the use of a liquid electrolyte limits their lifespan (due to electrolyte evaporation), their compactness and the scope...