3. Forecasting consumption and power

Consumption and power forecasts, over a more or less long period of time, are the foundation of any electricity network planning study. The growth of electrical energy consumption depends on many factors that are difficult to assess, especially when it comes to long-term forecasts over relatively small areas.

However, in the context of long-term planning, which corresponds to the creation of master plans, the aim is to estimate, with relative precision, the average level of growth corresponding to the area of action of one or more source substations. In the context of these studies, a distinction is frequently made between :

• in-depth" growth, which corresponds overall to the evolution of existing expenses, including new small expenses;

• surface" growth, corresponding to the appearance...