5. Choice of scenarios

This is the last paragraph of this first part of the hazard identification study, and is of vital importance, as it will serve as the basis for the following sections. The next step is to select the scenario(s) that will be used for the remainder of the study, based on all the information gathered above.

As indicated in the circular of October 2, 2003 on the implications of the "Risks" law on hazard studies, the analysis of the risks present on the site must include :

• the probability of occurrence, when this data is available or can be estimated;

• accident kinetics, with the possibility of intervening and limiting the effects of slow kinetic incidents;

• the severity of the accident.

In addition, the principle of proportionality...