2. What are the weaknesses of database quantification?

The use of databases to estimate ignition probabilities is a simple method to implement, but one which quickly suffers from limitations. Indeed, the following weaknesses can be noted:

• There are few sources reporting ignition probabilities.

• Some databases do not specify whether the reported probability covers immediate, delayed or total inflammation.

• Few databases report immediate ignition probabilities.

• The values reported generally depend on just one parameter (or at best two). For example, the probability of ignition may be given as a function of breach flow alone.

• Reported probabilities often vary over a wide range of values. For example, they can fluctuate between very low values (of the order of 0.001)...