Geopolitics and Hydrogen

Since 2018, hydrogen has become a subject of growing interest in the world of energy. Indeed, hydrogen appears to be an essential energy vector for decarbonizing many sectors that are difficult (or even impossible) to electrify economically and technically, such as steel or cement production, petrochemicals, sea or air transport, and part of road transport. Hydrogen (or its derivatives such as methanol, ammonia or electrofuels) is therefore essential if we are to achieve carbon neutrality.

At present, hydrogen is mainly consumed at the point of production, and is produced from fossil fuels. In the future, hydrogen will have to be decarbonized, produced either from electrolysis and renewable electricity, or from steam reforming of natural gas with carbon capture and storage. A global market with commercial exchanges is likely to emerge. This is to the advantage of countries with abundant, inexpensive renewable energy resources, while traditional fossil fuel exporters, especially natural gas, rely on their resources to remain influential exporters.

The prospects for a significant increase in the role of hydrogen in the energy mix threaten to profoundly alter the global energy landscape. Through "hydrogen strategies", already published by over 40 countries, and bilateral agreements, a different energy geography is emerging. New exporting countries, such as Chile and Morocco, are entering the global energy scene. Existing fossil fuel exporters are trying to maintain their role and make hydrogen their new oil. The large number of potential producers and exporters also points to fierce competition between these countries to supply a limited number of importers, centered on Europe and Asia.

The hydrogen economy, however, goes beyond supply and demand balances. It includes all the technologies associated with hydrogen, such as electrolyzers or fuel cells, as well as the raw materials needed to produce these technologies. Countries such as the United States, Europe, China, Japan and South Korea are positioning themselves to dominate the various parts of the value chain for this new energy carrier.