Conclusion

In industrial risk analysis, the bow-tie method is one of the most widely used risk quantification methods. Its rigorous application enables the causes and consequences of a feared event to be exhaustively identified. This method enables us to visualize in concrete terms the combinations of causes that could lead to an accident, as well as the prevention and mitigation barriers implemented to prevent and limit the effects of an accident.

Quantifying a bowtie, on the other hand, requires quantified data (frequency of occurrence for RE, failure rate, probability of ignition, etc.). Quantification is, of course, where the difficulties inherent in risk assessment emerge. Indeed, it is impossible to suggest that a bow tie can be constructed without raising questions about the credibility and origin of the data needed to quantify it. And yet, while there are many data...