4. Risk assessment and evaluation

We know that estimating risk requires quantifying the probability of occurrence of the feared event (the accident), as well as the severity of the effects generated by this event. These quantifications are obtained using the following techniques:

• research accident scenarios to quantify their probability of occurrence, using SoTL tools (APR, AdD, FMEA/FMEA) (see table 7 );

• modelling of the associated physical phenomena to quantify the severity of the consequences, using the following sciences:

  • energy to model explosion and fire phenomena,

  • fluid mechanics to model dispersions (in air and/or water),...