Geopolitics of the energy transition

Energy transition is one of the major challenges facing the world today. Its aim is to completely transform the current energy system from an 80% fossil fuel mix to a low-carbon mix. The aim is to establish a sustainable global energy system and combat global warming.

Energy plays a very important role in geopolitics, as the entire economy depends on it. The energy transition will therefore have considerable geopolitical repercussions. It will profoundly alter international relations. The major trade flows of hydro-carbons and coal will tend to be replaced by flows of raw materials and equipment to build the facilities required by the new energy mix.

In this context, fossil fuel-producing countries will see their role as energy suppliers diminish. Consumer countries will gain greater autonomy in energy production. However, they will have to equip themselves with new infrastructures to be able to exploit renewable energy sources. They will need to import large quantities of materials, some of them critical, and no doubt also equipment from countries like China, which have secured dominant positions in this field. Dependence on imported fossil fuels is therefore likely to be replaced by dependence on imported materials and equipment. In the long term, there is also the question of the availability of certain materials that remain indispensable for the construction of the required installations, including common materials such as concrete and steel.