1. Identify key factors and uncertainties to build scenarios
Key factors are those elements that will have a significant impact on the production chain, such as technologies, regulations, economic trends, etc.
Uncertainties are elements whose evolution is unpredictable, such as political changes, economic crises or technological innovations (often disruptive, like uberization).
1.1 Scenario building and analysis
Scenarios can be of different kinds:
Exploratory, they explore the different directions the future could take, based on the uncertainties identified.
Normative, they focus on desirable futures and the means to achieve them.
Predictive, they extend current trends in an...
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Identify key factors and uncertainties to build scenarios
Developing strategies
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The scenario method (type "The scenario method: a strategic planning tool" in the search tool) is a planning tool that enables us to design long-term objectives while the future remains undecided and uncertain.
There are three main categories of scenario: predictive, exploratory and normative....
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