Practical sheet | REF: FIC0548 V1

Quantification of ignition probabilities and database

Author: Olivier IDDIR

Publication date: April 10, 2014, Review date: November 13, 2016 | Lire en français

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5. Mistakes to avoid

5.1 Don't quantify immediate and delayed inflammation separately

If the database used reports a total ignition probability, i.e. a probability that encompasses immediate and delayed ignition, it is necessary to make an assumption about the distribution between immediate and delayed ignition. For example, if the probability of total inflammation is equal to 0.5 and we assume a 50/50 distribution, then the probabilities of immediate and delayed inflammation will be equal to 0.25. Without this type of assumption, it is not possible to differentiate the probabilities of hazardous phenomena associated with immediate ignition (e.g. flaming jet in the case of a gaseous release) from those associated with delayed ignition (e.g. UVCE/flash fire in the case of a gaseous release).

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